12 March 2015

30th post of the blog: Weekend Preview of Ladies' Ski Jumping: Chapter 4: All roads lead to Oslo (Holmenkollen)

Greetings!

This is the last Weekend Preview of the 2014/2015 season. Let's get straight to the preview, as the season finale is less than 24 hours away from now.

Oslo's Holmenkollbakken HS134 hill is different from all the hills, which we've seen this season: the largest hill so far was at Oberstdorf, HS106. To take victory, jumps altered between 85 and 105 meters, and now these female jumpers must adjust to the large hill. Last season's winner, Sara Takanashi jumped 132.0 meters and 128.5 meters. It takes more courage to reach those distances, not forgetting the technique, and good conditions. Ladies' hill record belongs to Takanashi, 134.0 meters from 17th of March, 2013.

Let's take a closer look for the previous season's results:
1. Sara Takanashi   JPN   132.0 meters + 128.5 meters  = 257.6 points
2. Katja Pozun   SLO   122.0 m + 122.5 m  = 218.5 p
3. Yuki Ito   JPN   122.5 m + 125.0 m  = 216.2 p
4. Irina Avvakumova   RUS   120.0 m + 121.5 m  = 209.1 p
5. Taylor Henrich   CAN   117.0 m + 121.5 m  = 207.7 p
6. Maja Vtic   SLO   117.5 m + 123.0 m = 207.2 p
7. Maren Lundby   NOR   122.5 m + 115.0 m  = 206.3 p
8. Gyda Enger   NOR   124.0 m + 115.5 m  = 206.1 p
9. Line Jahr   NOR   114.5 m + 120.0 m  = 204.5 p
10. Jessica Jerome   USA   118.0 m + 117.0 m  = 203.2 p

There are some interesting things to note: Carina Vogt, Daniela Iraschko-Stolz and Sarah Hendrickson didn't participate. There were only 30 competitiors, which might mean that the finale has the same rules as men's competition: only TOP30 of current World Cup competitors are allowed to participate. One side also is that the average age of TOP3 was less than 20 years, so young jumpers might be in better position, as they probably have more courage to fly as far as possible. Let's move on to the contemporary situation.

Latest competitions were organized in Falun, World Championships, HS100 hill. Carina Vogt won, Daniela Iraschko-Stolz was 2nd, Yuki Ito 3rd and Sara Takanashi 4th. They probably will be fighting for the win. We shouldn't also forget Sarah Hendrickson, Slovenian Vtic & Rogelj, Maren Lundby and Taylor Henrich. World Cup will conclude, but it's not yet for sure, who'll win the Overall Cup. Standings are quite interesting:
1. D. Iraschko-Stolz   AUT   962
2. S. Takanashi   JPN   873   -89
3. C. Vogt   GER   622   -340
4. S. Rogelj   SLO   549   -413
5. Y. Ito   JPN   398   -564
6. E. Pinkelnig   AUT   382   -580
7. M. Vtic   SLO   378   -584
8. J. Seifriedsberger   AUT  352   -610
9. N. Englund   USA   324   -638
10. S. Hendrickson   USA   319   -643
11. I. Avvakumova   RUS   293   -669
12. L. Jahr   NOR   290   -672
13. K. Althaus   GER   288   -675
14. M. Lundby   NOR   269   -693
15. J. Seyfarth   GER   215   -747
...
17. T. Henrich   CAN   170   -792
19. S. Tikhonova   RUS   141   -821

1st place will be either for Iraschko-Stolz or Takanashi. Vogt and Rogelj will finish in TOP4. Ito, Pinkelnig, Vtic and perhaps Seifriedsberger will fight for 5th. Hendrickson might finish 8th, and Avvakumova must watch out for Jahr, Althaus and Lundby.

Main points to watch in the finale (World Cup wise) :
- Takanashi needs a win, and Iraschko-Stolz can't finish higher than 21st
- Vogt needs at least 9th position to secure 3rd place in the standings
- Battle for 5th will be tough: - Ito and Vtic might be the biggest candidates
- Does Hendrickson become the best jumper from the United States, and finish maybe in 8th?
- Who'll be 11th?

Takanashi's overall win is unlikely, as Iraschko-Stolz hasn't been lower than 8th this season - and there are definetly other candidates for the win: Vogt, Rogelj, Vtic, Hendrickson, Lundby and Henrich, perhaps even Vtic. It'll be also interesting to see, how far will ladies jump.

My TOP3 prediction for the competition: 1. Hendrickson, 2. Takanashi, 3. Vogt.

My TOP6 prediction for the World Cup: 1. Iraschko-Stolz, 2. Takanashi, 3. Vogt, 4. Rogelj, 5. Ito, 6. Vtic

All in all, the finale will be very interesting; don't miss it! The finale starts at 17:00 GMT+1, local time as well. This was quite a preview: hopefully you found some interesting points for the competition. Thank you very much, enjoy your day, and the season finale! :)

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